تدوین سناریوهای متصور برای آینده نهاد رسانه‌ای کتابخانه‌های عمومی ایران

Purpose: The aim of the current research is to write possible scenarios for the future of Iran's public libraries. Regarding the position and application of public libraries, they are considered as a communicative medium. Methodology: The effort is to offer scenarios that deal with the multiplicity and unpredictability of the future. The Two-on-Two model was used for determination of scenarios. This model is formed through intersection of two propulsions that have uncertainties. Thus, in the first step, two lists of propulsions were created. For extracting fundamental uncertainties, questionnaires were sent to experts and professions to collect their attitudes through Delphi method. Findings: Findings show that the most fundamental uncertainties of public libraries include physical space versus Cyberspace, physical resources versus virtual resources and localization versus globalization. The inherent nature of virtual resources is their dependency on cyber and virtual spaces. Thus, these two uncertainties were aggregated and the result was used as a single axis. Based on the following factors, four scenarios were determined: 1. "space and resources", this axis alone ranges between virtual and physical, 2." Direction of services", this one ranges between "promotion of local cultural resources" and "promotion of global cultural". These four scenarios consider a library as a local hub, a media center, a virtual library, and a virtual network of information. Originality/Value: The current paper establishes techniques of transdisciplinary and future studies to prepare backgrounds for the useful participation of public libraries among competitive media, specially emerging ones.